Tue, 23 February 2016
In the final Oscar podcast of the 2015/2016 season, our 36th, I am joined by Gold Rush Gang member Jason, Evan and Kenneth to disseminate, break down and predict all 24 Academy Awards categories in searing, biting detail. A warning, there is some messiness ahead in this 2-hour+ podcast due, possibly, to wine intake. There may or may not be some sidebar shade towards Brooklyn, but you'll have to listen to be sure. I give this podcast to you unedited and raw. Why subvert the truth?
The first 20 minutes we take apart the Shorts so if that's not your thing you can skip it, but any good Oscar predictor knows these are the categories that can make or break your Oscar pool, or even better, your chances of getting into next year's Gold Rush Gang.
The majority of the podcast centers around the 10 separate battles that The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road will be on throughout Oscar night. Where will they split? Where do WE split?
Finally, we land on Best Picture which, for some, is still an open race. There are strong arguments to be made for the three main contenders (The Revenant, The Big Short and Spotlight) and we'll detail them right here.
Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy podcast.
Sun, 14 February 2016
In our 35th podcast, recording just minutes after the 2016 BAFTA awards ceremony, I am joined by three Gold Rush Gang members (James, Evan and Kenneth) to hash over the huge turn in the Oscar game with The Revenant making good on its recent DGA win and taking BAFTA's Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and more. Can anyone deny its frontrunner status now?
We also look at the continued strength of Mad Max: Fury Road (which won four awards) and the craziness of the Best Supporting Actress category, including a bit of time devoted to the one and only Diane Ladd on her "greed and corruption" accusations of leading actress performances in "her" suppawting category.
We finish by talking about the three slates of performers and presenters for the 88th Academy Awards, wonder if the chosen presenters are too thinly veiled an answer to the #OscarsSoWhite controversy and try and figure out who will be presenting Best Picture.
Sun, 17 January 2016
In Oscar Podcast #34, recorded Sunday, January 17th I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth Polischuk and Evan Kost to comb over what got snubbed (Carol!) and what overperformed (Room, The Revenant).
We run down our predictions in all of the top categories (who's the frontrunner - Spotlight? The Revenant? The Big Short?) and talk about the exhaustive research into categories like Costume Design, a branch of only 20 people in the Academy. But research and analysis is the cornerstone of the AwardsWatch member doing Oscar predictions and it's often what sets us apart from most punditry.
We conclude by addressing the ongoing controversy and conversation of the omission of people of color in the acting nominees as well as gender and sexuality still being issues for a majority of voters.
Sun, 3 January 2016
A crazy day as the National Society of Film Critics announced their winners today, the Producers Guild announce their Best Picture nominees on Tuesday, the BAFTA nominations are Friday and the Golden Globes are Sunday. No rest for the wicked.
Gold Rush Gang member Chris Pepper and James Narvey sat down with me, Erik Anderson, to discuss all of this.
Is Spotlight unbeatable? Can Sylvester Stallone (Creed) and Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) win Golden Globes and then miss out on Oscar nominations? What if BAFTA puts Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) in Lead like the Golden Globes did? What if they do that for Michael Keaton (Spotlight) or Jacob Tremblay (Room)?
This has been a topsy-turvy season and it's only just getting started. Buckle up.
Sat, 12 December 2015
At SAG, Joy and The Martian are snubbed while Trumbo, Beasts of No Nation and Straight Outta Compton show up. What gives? Could it be the power of Helen Mirren and Bryan Cranston and their massive SAG histories? Things often make more sense in retrospect.
The Globes followed suit for Trumbo but then also brought us momentum for Carol, Room and Mad Max: Fury Road. Plus, the return of The Martian and Joy. We also talk about just how bad Warner Brothers is doing this year, both with their awards campaigns and box office.
We discuss all major categories and just how tough Supporting Actor is this year. The emergence of Michael Shannon in 99 Homes in an already packed race just adds another person to an already near-impossible top 5. Also discussed, the precarious position of Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander's category fraud campaigns.
We finish by digging heavy into Best Director, both the Golden Globe nominations and possible Directors Guild of America (DGA) candidates.
Sun, 29 November 2015
In our 31st podcast, I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth Polishchuk and Evan Kost as Hollywood embarks on the beginning of the Oscar race: critics season.
With the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle revealing their winners on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, we break down who we think is going to win but, more importantly, how and why. We know the NBR has a penchant for rewarding Warner Brothers films (three in their top 10 in both 2013 and 2014) so we're pretty bullish on Black Mass (huge campaign), Mad Max: Fury Road (passion vote) and Creed (surprise late major player) to make it in.
Over at New York, their love of Todd Haynes should see Carol do very well but also room for Room and Spotlight to hit the ground running. Also, will NY consider Rooney Mara a Lead in Carol? The critics could very well buck The Weinstein Company's supporting placement of Mara (as the Golden Globes did) and push her in Best Actress.
We also discuss The Revenant, which I saw last night at an industry screening in San Francisco. It was met with rapturous response and I was moved and shocked by its brilliance and emotional impact. I also assert that there is virtually no way Leonardo DiCaprio isn't winning the Best Actor Oscar. Wrap it up, it's a done deal.
The other major screening was Joy in New York and Los Angeles last night with a Q&A with David O. Russell, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Isabella Rossellini and Dascha Polanco. Although word is there are still going to be some sound edit tweaks to the film it's all but finished. Word was largely very positive, most especially towards Lawrence. It seems like it could end up being just a Lawrence vehicle in terms of awards but we're going to wait until actual reviews to show up on December 14th to be sure.
Throughout the podcast we talk about the ongoing conversation of this year's batch of 'women's films' and what they mean to the race. Can four female-led movies (Joy, Carol, Room, Brooklyn) all be Best Picture nominees? And how cool is that those four films hold the top four Best Actress contenders this year? Quite a far cry from last year, to be sure.
So, settle in, we break two hours with this podcast. Hit the gym or hit the bottle, either way it's a good listen.
Sun, 8 November 2015
In this, our 30th podcast, I welcome back a couple of Gold Rush Gang members (one current, one former) to talk about the most recent box office flops (Steve Jobs, Our Brand Is Crisis, Freeheld) and the three new Oscar hopefuls that debuted this weekend: Spotlight, Brooklyn and Trumbo.
We also dig into our Screen Actors Guild nomination predictions which finds Long Pham defending his handful of sole predictions (like Joel Edgerton in Black Mass) and Dennis Kelly coming in with some smart stats as he always does.
Wed, 14 October 2015
In our 29th podcast I welcome back Todd VanDerWerff, the Culture Editor of Vox.com to talk about the strange year of Oscar punditry and the 'wait and see' type of predictions that have been slowly settling in over the years and is especially evident this year. Is old fashioned predicting gone forever?
We dig deeper into how we think AMPAS looks at films year to year, how with Suffragette, Carol, Room and Joy that this might be an actual 'Year of the Women' in film and what that means for Oscar's Best Picture race.
We also talk about the Joy screening that happened last week. Two AwardsWatch members were there and reported back to me on their findings and the piece I wrote caused quite a stir in the Oscar prognostication community. Will it or The Revenant or The Hateful Eight break the December curse to be an Oscar Best Picture?
And hey, this podcast is under an hour! Perfect for the commute home or to work, on the treadmill or while hate-watching the newest season of American Horror Story: Hotel!
Mon, 28 September 2015
Oscar Podcast #28: After Venice, Telluride & TIFF - Who Fell, Who Rose and Who's in the Lead with special guest Gregory Ellwood
In this podcast I welcome HitFix co-founder and longtime Oscar pundit Gregory Ellwood (currently at the helm of awardscampaign.com) as we talk about the state of the race post fall festivals and right as NYFF kicks off.
The Danish Girl keeps popping up throughout the podcast (you'll have to listen to know where we think it landed) as well as Steve Jobs. Is it an actors showcase or can the film go all the way? We also focus on Spotlight and Room making big moves and wonder if Inside Out will crack Best Picture. Beasts of No Nation gets a lot of play as we examine if Netflix has it in them to make it happen.
Gregory and I spar a bit on what we think the Oscar chances for Joy and The Hateful Eight will be and Gregory pulls out a couple of potential 'surprise' movies that no one is talking about in the race that could hit big with Oscar.
All this and much more.
Mon, 24 August 2015
In this summertime podcast I'm joined by special guest Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood at IndieWire. Anne is a gal in the know and having her on this podcast is a treat. We're talking about the fall festivals, what may or may not be happening with Sony Pictures Classics' Miles Ahead, possible category fraud this season and we look at each of the major studios in the Oscar hunt:
What is Sony Pictures Classics' #1: I Saw the Light or Miles Ahead or Son of Saul?
All this and more in a tight 40 minutes!