Sun, 17 January 2016
In Oscar Podcast #34, recorded Sunday, January 17th I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth Polischuk and Evan Kost to comb over what got snubbed (Carol!) and what overperformed (Room, The Revenant).
We run down our predictions in all of the top categories (who's the frontrunner - Spotlight? The Revenant? The Big Short?) and talk about the exhaustive research into categories like Costume Design, a branch of only 20 people in the Academy. But research and analysis is the cornerstone of the AwardsWatch member doing Oscar predictions and it's often what sets us apart from most punditry.
We conclude by addressing the ongoing controversy and conversation of the omission of people of color in the acting nominees as well as gender and sexuality still being issues for a majority of voters.
Sun, 3 January 2016
A crazy day as the National Society of Film Critics announced their winners today, the Producers Guild announce their Best Picture nominees on Tuesday, the BAFTA nominations are Friday and the Golden Globes are Sunday. No rest for the wicked.
Gold Rush Gang member Chris Pepper and James Narvey sat down with me, Erik Anderson, to discuss all of this.
Is Spotlight unbeatable? Can Sylvester Stallone (Creed) and Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) win Golden Globes and then miss out on Oscar nominations? What if BAFTA puts Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) in Lead like the Golden Globes did? What if they do that for Michael Keaton (Spotlight) or Jacob Tremblay (Room)?
This has been a topsy-turvy season and it's only just getting started. Buckle up.
Sat, 12 December 2015
At SAG, Joy and The Martian are snubbed while Trumbo, Beasts of No Nation and Straight Outta Compton show up. What gives? Could it be the power of Helen Mirren and Bryan Cranston and their massive SAG histories? Things often make more sense in retrospect.
The Globes followed suit for Trumbo but then also brought us momentum for Carol, Room and Mad Max: Fury Road. Plus, the return of The Martian and Joy. We also talk about just how bad Warner Brothers is doing this year, both with their awards campaigns and box office.
We discuss all major categories and just how tough Supporting Actor is this year. The emergence of Michael Shannon in 99 Homes in an already packed race just adds another person to an already near-impossible top 5. Also discussed, the precarious position of Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander's category fraud campaigns.
We finish by digging heavy into Best Director, both the Golden Globe nominations and possible Directors Guild of America (DGA) candidates.
Sun, 29 November 2015
In our 31st podcast, I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth Polishchuk and Evan Kost as Hollywood embarks on the beginning of the Oscar race: critics season.
With the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle revealing their winners on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, we break down who we think is going to win but, more importantly, how and why. We know the NBR has a penchant for rewarding Warner Brothers films (three in their top 10 in both 2013 and 2014) so we're pretty bullish on Black Mass (huge campaign), Mad Max: Fury Road (passion vote) and Creed (surprise late major player) to make it in.
Over at New York, their love of Todd Haynes should see Carol do very well but also room for Room and Spotlight to hit the ground running. Also, will NY consider Rooney Mara a Lead in Carol? The critics could very well buck The Weinstein Company's supporting placement of Mara (as the Golden Globes did) and push her in Best Actress.
We also discuss The Revenant, which I saw last night at an industry screening in San Francisco. It was met with rapturous response and I was moved and shocked by its brilliance and emotional impact. I also assert that there is virtually no way Leonardo DiCaprio isn't winning the Best Actor Oscar. Wrap it up, it's a done deal.
The other major screening was Joy in New York and Los Angeles last night with a Q&A with David O. Russell, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Isabella Rossellini and Dascha Polanco. Although word is there are still going to be some sound edit tweaks to the film it's all but finished. Word was largely very positive, most especially towards Lawrence. It seems like it could end up being just a Lawrence vehicle in terms of awards but we're going to wait until actual reviews to show up on December 14th to be sure.
Throughout the podcast we talk about the ongoing conversation of this year's batch of 'women's films' and what they mean to the race. Can four female-led movies (Joy, Carol, Room, Brooklyn) all be Best Picture nominees? And how cool is that those four films hold the top four Best Actress contenders this year? Quite a far cry from last year, to be sure.
So, settle in, we break two hours with this podcast. Hit the gym or hit the bottle, either way it's a good listen.
Sun, 8 November 2015
In this, our 30th podcast, I welcome back a couple of Gold Rush Gang members (one current, one former) to talk about the most recent box office flops (Steve Jobs, Our Brand Is Crisis, Freeheld) and the three new Oscar hopefuls that debuted this weekend: Spotlight, Brooklyn and Trumbo.
We also dig into our Screen Actors Guild nomination predictions which finds Long Pham defending his handful of sole predictions (like Joel Edgerton in Black Mass) and Dennis Kelly coming in with some smart stats as he always does.
Wed, 14 October 2015
In our 29th podcast I welcome back Todd VanDerWerff, the Culture Editor of Vox.com to talk about the strange year of Oscar punditry and the 'wait and see' type of predictions that have been slowly settling in over the years and is especially evident this year. Is old fashioned predicting gone forever?
We dig deeper into how we think AMPAS looks at films year to year, how with Suffragette, Carol, Room and Joy that this might be an actual 'Year of the Women' in film and what that means for Oscar's Best Picture race.
We also talk about the Joy screening that happened last week. Two AwardsWatch members were there and reported back to me on their findings and the piece I wrote caused quite a stir in the Oscar prognostication community. Will it or The Revenant or The Hateful Eight break the December curse to be an Oscar Best Picture?
And hey, this podcast is under an hour! Perfect for the commute home or to work, on the treadmill or while hate-watching the newest season of American Horror Story: Hotel!
Mon, 28 September 2015
Oscar Podcast #28: After Venice, Telluride & TIFF - Who Fell, Who Rose and Who's in the Lead with special guest Gregory Ellwood
In this podcast I welcome HitFix co-founder and longtime Oscar pundit Gregory Ellwood (currently at the helm of awardscampaign.com) as we talk about the state of the race post fall festivals and right as NYFF kicks off.
The Danish Girl keeps popping up throughout the podcast (you'll have to listen to know where we think it landed) as well as Steve Jobs. Is it an actors showcase or can the film go all the way? We also focus on Spotlight and Room making big moves and wonder if Inside Out will crack Best Picture. Beasts of No Nation gets a lot of play as we examine if Netflix has it in them to make it happen.
Gregory and I spar a bit on what we think the Oscar chances for Joy and The Hateful Eight will be and Gregory pulls out a couple of potential 'surprise' movies that no one is talking about in the race that could hit big with Oscar.
All this and much more.
Mon, 24 August 2015
In this summertime podcast I'm joined by special guest Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood at IndieWire. Anne is a gal in the know and having her on this podcast is a treat. We're talking about the fall festivals, what may or may not be happening with Sony Pictures Classics' Miles Ahead, possible category fraud this season and we look at each of the major studios in the Oscar hunt:
What is Sony Pictures Classics' #1: I Saw the Light or Miles Ahead or Son of Saul?
All this and more in a tight 40 minutes!
Tue, 14 July 2015
In this final Emmy predictions podcast before the nominations are revealed on Thursday by So You Think You Can Dance's Cat Deeley and Orange is the New Black's Uzo Abuda (an Emmy winner in Guest last year), Awardswatch Emmy Experts Chris Pepper and Peter Cioth join me, Erik Anderson, to continue on from last week's podcast (with Vox.com's Todd VanDerWerff) to dig into the TV Movie/Limited Series, Variety and Reality categories.
Not satisfied there, we go back into the Drama and Comedy categories for some deeper analysis.
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and head over to our Emmy Predictions pages for full predictions on all major categories in Drama, Comedy, TV Movie/Limited Series, Variety and Reality.
Tue, 23 June 2015
In the first Emmy prediction podcast of the 2014/2015 season (I know, I know...), Awardswatch Emmy Experts Chris Pepper and Jonathan Boehle and myself, Erik Anderson, are honored to have AW alum and Vox.com Culture Editor Todd VanDerWerff join us as we deconstruct the Emmy submission ballots released last week and figure out if Orange is the New Black will suffer or benefit from its category switch from Comedy to Drama. We also take a look at the Guest categories in both Drama and Comedy and see how the 50% rule will affect those categories.
Later on we talk about the rise and fall of Netflix from last year to this year and how its Emmy season could end up and discuss the campaign games of HBO, Showtime and FX as well as if Mad Men will go out with a bang or a whimper. Todd makes his case for FX's The Americans to have a breakthrough year and I commit that Amazon's Transparent will be an Emmy nomination juggernaut.
Don't forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and head over to our Emmy Predictions pages for full predictions on everything from Variety Series, Reality Host and TV Movie/Limited Series acting categories.