Fri, 8 December 2017
Oscar Podcast #60: Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Predictions with Kayleigh Donaldson of Pajiba
Oscar Podcast #60, the second in a week, welcomes the fantastic Kayleigh Donaldson of Pajiba to talk about Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nomination predictions.
A healthy portion of the first part of the Golden Globe conversation centers around Get Out, both in its quality as a film and its likelihood as a Golden Globe Best Picture nominee. Talk about Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and the Darkest Hour are abound.
The Screen Actors Guild conversation details the nature of nominees being dependent on the SAG nom comm getting screeners and how odd nominees can find their way here. Kayleigh and I both agree that the main category here, Cast in a Motion Picture is chock full of likely and worthy contenders and that it's going to be a bloodbath.
Mudbound is a point of contention as to whether is lives or dies on SAG nominations or not.
It's at this point that we take a sojourn into the wonder that is The Florida Project, which happens to be among both of our favorites of the year.
We wrap with a few nominees we feel we might only see here at SAG (hint: mine if from Logan and it's not Hugh Jackman).
You can see my official Golden Globe predictions here, and my Screen Actors Guild predictions will be revealed this weekend.
This podcast runs 1h 9min with music.
Intro: Get Out TV spot #3
Outro: "New York City By Day" by Thomas Newman from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack to Desperately Seeking Susan
Tue, 5 December 2017
Oscar Podcast #59: Critics' Award Season Begins; Talking Call Me By Your Name, Three Billboards, Get Out and more with guest Kyle Buchanan
In this 59th Oscar Podcast I am joined by Kyle Buchanan, senior editor of New York Magazine and Vulture.com.
We start by discussing the first round of critics' awards: the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and what their wins for Call Me By Your Name and The Shape of Water could have on the upcoming (ongoing?) road to the Oscars.
Throughout, Kyle peppers the conversation with his insight on voters, the importance of being the 'movie for right now' and we dip a bit into Screen Actors Guild talk, especially regarding Get Out (watch out for a new podcast for that this weekend).
We wrap up addressing some of the controversies surrounding contender Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and reactions to Call Me By Your Name.
This podcast runs 1h 5m 25s with music.
Intro: Call Me By Your Name TV spot
Outro: "New York City By Day," by Thomas Newman from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan
Sun, 12 November 2017
It's been quite a while since our last Oscar Podcast but we're back with #58 talking about the downfalls of Harvey Weinstein, Kevin Spacey and the avalanche of accusations and allegations that have rocked Hollywood this last month. The first section of the podcast my guest, Gold Rush Gang member Matt Dinn, and I talk about the impact of this on the current landscape of the Oscar race, specifically to The Weinstein Company's awards efforts and the surprising news last week that Ridley Scott would cut Kevin Spacey out of his Getty kidnapping drama All the Money in the World, replace him with Christopher Plummer (the actor he originally wanted for the role of Getty) and the race to do this and keep the film's December 22nd release date.
Then we examine the exciting and complicated Supporting Actor race with its multiple dual contenders from the same films this year, including Call Me By Your Name, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. We make our cases for the top 3: Sam Rockwell, Willem Dafoe and Michael Stuhlbarg as potential winners and if Armie Hammer can break the 26-year curse in this category.
Next is Supporting Actress which focuses on frontrunners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) and the mother-daughter theme of this category and the contenders at large. I make my case for Tiffany Haddish (Girls Trip) to get in if Universal pushes hard and gets her out there and that this acting category could be the only that will have a POC represented (most notably, Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water and Mary J. Blige in Mudbound).
Lead Actress gets a ton of talk time (of course) with Meryl Streep (The Post) and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards) dominating that as well as looking at our existing top 5 and wondering how or who could break through that solid-looking lineup that includes Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) and Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird).
Lead Actor also finds itself with three solid contenders but open doors for spots 4 and 5. Will Tom Hanks go supporting for The Post like Jason Robards did for All the President's Men? Will Jake Gyllenhaal see another year where he hits precursors only to be snubbed at Oscar? What about how very white this category is? It seems only Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out) and Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.) could make that not happen but it's going to take some heavy lifting by their studios to do it.
With intro and outro this podcast runs 2h 7m.
Intro: The Post trailer via 20th Century Fox
Outro: "New York City by Day" by Thomas Newman from the Desperately Seeking Susan Original Motion Picture Soundtrack
Fri, 10 November 2017
"I like your shoes."
Those were the first words that Luca Guadagnino, the director of Call Me By Your Name, one of this year's biggest critical hits and Oscar favorites, said to me as I sat down to interview him. Truth be told, I did wear my red sequined Converse so I might have been fishing for that. Guadagnino himself was sporting fabulous red suede shoes so, of course, I returned the compliment.
Both Luca and one of his film's stars, Michael Stuhlbarg, were in town for the Napa Valley Film Festival. Stuhlbarg was receiving a Spotlight award and had two films at the festival - The Shape of Water and Call Me By Your Name. A fascinating duo, as Guadagnino was verbose and gave detailed and long responses to questions and Stuhlbarg with a more methodical approach to answers.
Throughout the interview we talk about the journey for the book to get to film, getting Sufjan Stevens aboard and even a casting scoop the upcoming sequel (hint: it's someone from The Big Splash).
This interview runs 36m 10s with intro and outro.
Intro: Call Me By Your Name trailer featuring "Mystery of Love" by Sufjan Stevens
Outro: "Visions of Gideon" by Sufjan Stevens from the Call Me By Your Name Original Motion Picture Soundtrack (copyright - The Orchard Enterprises and ℗ 2017 Sufjan Stevens)
Direct download: Call_Me_By_Your_Name-Luca_Guadagnino-Michael_Stuhlbarg_Interview.mp3
Category:Oscars -- posted at: 2:22pm PST
Mon, 25 September 2017
It's the first Oscar podcast after the big summer film festivals - Venice, Telluride and Toronto - and usually by now we have a frontrunner. But not this year.
Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water won the Golden Lion at Venice and Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri won the People's Choice Award at Toronto. Both are from Fox Searchlight, but who will they favor in this fall and winter's awards race?
I am joined on Oscar Podcast #57 by Gold Rush Gang member Jason Osiason and Matt Dinn, who both attended Toronto this year and give their thoughts on personal favorites like I, Tonya, Lady Bird and The Florida Project.
Next up is the New York Film Festival which will give us our first looks at Last Flag Flying and Wonder Wheel.
This podcast runs 1h53m
Intro: "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" official trailer B
Outro: "New York City By Day" by Thomas Newman from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan
Thu, 24 August 2017
This 20th Emmy Podcast, I am joined by fellow Emmy Expert Jonathan Boehle to give our predictions in Variety Series, Variety Talk Series, Variety Sketch Series, Special Class Program, Reality-Competition Program and Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program.
While it feels some categories have clear frontrunners (how is Saturday Night Live not winning Variety Series?), others seem like closer races.
Will Stephen Colbert or Samantha Bee triumph in Variety Special for their election themed specials? Will the (Hamilton) Tonys beat the (Moonlight) Oscars?
What about Reality Host? Will RuPaul Charles triumph again or will Emmy magnet Alec Baldwin find a match?
Check out the full predictions for this year's Emmy Awards from the Emmy Experts as they're updated live until next month's Creative Arts and Primetime Emmys.
Keep an eye and ear out for upcoming Emmy podcasts covering Comedy, Drama and Limited Series/TV movie categories.
This podcast runs a tight 51 minutes with opening and closing elements.
Wed, 9 August 2017
Oscar Podcast #56: Fall Festivals, Pre-Festival Release Contenders and Oscar Predictions Take Shape (of Water)
With the Venice, Toronto and New York Film Festivals all having announced their slates for this year it was the perfect time to podcast. I am joined by Gold Rush Gang member Bryan Bonafede and we drill deep into who is playing where and even Telluride, which doesn't announce until the weekend of the fest. Based on the type of premiere a film gets at one those other three gives us information on who is going to Colorado.
We dig into Best Actress after it became official this week that Sony Pictures Classics has picked up FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL, giving Annette Bening the best shot of her career at an Oscar win. This unfolds to Supporting Actress where Melissa Leo dominates with NOVITIATE but we recognize that the category is pretty open in terms of nominations.
We discuss four films outside the scope of the fall festivals that are (or, in one case, were) potential Oscar contenders: DUNKIRK, GET OUT, DETROIT and THE BIG SICK.
We have a lot to say about Fox Searchlight's THE SHAPE OF WATER from Guillermo del Toro, which we think could be the real Best Picture contender this year and certainly has the best chance at the highest nomination total come January.
We close mentioning the new president of the Academy, John Bailey, and his predecessor Cheryl Boone Isaacs, who leaves behind a legacy unlike any president before her.
This podcast runs 1h 45m with music.
Intro music: Going Green
Outro music: "New York City By Day," by Thomas Newman from the film Desperately Seeking Susan
Tue, 11 July 2017
This 55th Oscar podcast I'm joined by no less than three esteemed Gold Rush Gang members - Jason Osiason, Richard Anthony and Matt Dinn.
We open on a discussion of the 774 Academy invitees announced two weeks ago and some of the backlash against names some felt were diluting the membership. We talk about how last year's new group impacted Moonlight's Best Picture win this year and how this new group will shape future nominees and winners.
Then it's onto the Venice and New York Film Festivals and who we think will show up. Between previous director and studio relationships there's a wealth of opportunities for films to make their big awards breakthroughs here. Films like The Shape of Water, Suburbicon, Wonderstruck and mother! are all aiming for prime time spots in world's bests fests.
Throughout we discuss Oscar potential for films but we close on some more specific categories and films. Detroit, Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk get a lot podcast play, as does Supporting Actor and the Screenplay categories, where Original is overstuffed with contenders and Adapted is struggling for five that make sense.
With music this podcast runs 2h 7m.
Fri, 7 July 2017
In this 19th Emmy podcast I am joined by AwardsWatch's Peter Cioth and Jonathan Boehle to discuss our final predictions for the 69th Emmy nominations.
Our focus this podcast is on Drama and Comedy Series and the Lead and Supporting categories in both. In Drama, much discussion surrounds what new shows will find themselves with nominations with Game of Thrones and Downton Abbey not in contention (This Is Us, The Crown, Westworld, Stranger Things, The Handmaid's Tale) and what could be left off this year (Homeland, House of Cards, Mr. Robot). Same goes for Comedy, will this be the year Modern Family is dropped? Will Atlanta be the only new show nominated or can Dear White People or Fleabag get in?
We end with the Variety and Special Class Program predictions.
With music this podcast runs about 2h 9m.
Intro music: Stranger Things opening theme by Survive (Kyle Dixon and Michael Stein)
Outro music: Atlanta opening music by Childish Gambino
Wed, 14 June 2017
This 18th Emmy podcast I am joined by former and current Emmy Experts Peter Cioth and Chris Pepper to break down the newly revealed nomination ballots to discuss the writing, directing and guest acting categories.
This podcast runs 1h 45m.
Opening music: the theme from 'The Crown'
Closing music: "Alla luce del giorno" by Ennio Morricone used in the opening sequence of 'Master of None' season two, episode one
Tue, 30 May 2017
After two months of no podcasts, I return for #54 with special guests Júlia Guimaraes and David Acacia. David is an AW member as well as a member of the International Cinephile Society. He guested on last year's post-Cannes podcast and he's back to spill some tea on his faves, what he didn't like and the general 'meh' feeling of this year's festival.
Bear with this podcast, folks, as David's connection goes in and out so much he sounds like he's reporting from the Black Lodge in Twin Peaks. Júlia, however, comes up with a clever tactic to overcome this.
The podcast covers the Cannes prize winners and their possibility as awards contenders as we move through the season. With The Beguiled, The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck there are certainly some that could find themselves with Oscar attention. We also talk about the foreign language film contenders from the festival, including Palme d'Or winner The Square, Grand Prize winner 120 Battements par minute and Jury Prize winner Loveless. We dig into the female representation of the in competition films, which jury member Jessica Chastain found disturbingly lacking (her press conference convo started a viral firestorm).
We finish up, of course, talking about Nicole Kidman's 70th anniversary prize, bestowed on her for her body of work in this year's festival (The Beguiled, The Killing of a Sacred Deer - both in competition - plus How to Talk to Girls at Parties and Top of the Lake: China Girl.
This podcast runs about 1h 45m and if you make it all the way to the end despite David's dropping in and out I heartily salute you.
Intro music: “Going Green”
Outro music: Thomas Newman’s “New York City By Day” from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan
Mon, 3 April 2017
This 53rd Oscar Podcast, the first of the 2017-2018 season, breaks down the main contenders right now and who could be in the future.
With CinemaCon last week, we got some insight on a few high-profile Oscar contenders like The Greatest Showman, Suburbicon, Downsizing, Wonderstruck and Darkest Hour. On the flip side, we are still very much in the dark about other films like Kathryn Bigelow's Untitled Detroit Riots Project, The Current War, The Post, and mother!
We talk about the impact, if any, the buzz for CinemaCon films will have on this month's predictions and also dig deep into where things stand in a post-Moonlight Oscar world. Will the pendulum swing back to an OscarsSoWhite year?
Intro music: "Going Green"
Outro music: Thomas Newman’s “New York City By Day” from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan
Mon, 27 March 2017
In our first Emmy podcast of the 2016-2017 Emmy season, Chris Pepper and I focus on the Limited Series and TV Movie categories.
Starting with Supporting Actress and Actor, we debate if American Horror Story can still muster nominations for Emmy winners Kathy Bates and Sarah Paulson or will Ryan Murphy's new venture, Feud: Bette and Joan, gobble up those spots for Judy Davis and Catherine Zeta-Jones. Category placement is still up in the air for many performances right now so we could see a different lineup in the coming months.
Lead Actor is next with debate about Ewan McGregor in a double role for Fargo making it in or possibly getting the Patrick Wilson treatment. And, are both Riz Ahmed and John Turturro (The Night Of) getting in?
We hit the top categories, Limited Series and TV Movie, which feel much more locked than they should be at the moment.
We end on the most competitive Emmy category in many years, Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie. Jam packed with Oscar winners and nominees, this category has 10 legitimate contenders vying for six spots. Nicole Kidman, Reese Witherspoon, Jessica Lange, Susan Sarandon, Michelle Pfeiffer, Carrie Coon, Felicity Huffman, Regina King, Oprah Winfrey, and Viola Davis will battle it out here. There will be snubs.
Intro music: Opening theme to Feud: Bette and Joan by Mac Quayle
Outro music: Opening theme to Big Little Lies: "Cold Little Heart," by Michael Kiwanuka
Mon, 27 February 2017
After last night's historic win for Moonlight in Best Picture and an announcement fiasco unlike anything the Academy Awards have ever seen before, there is a lot for Stone, Adams and myself to talk about.
Between our personal appreciation for Moonlight (and La La Land, for that matter) the conversation traverses politics and emotions as we analyze the academic reasons for the film's success and why it was so important that it won.
We cover the perceived backlash and controversy that arrived late for La La Land, what streaks and records were broken last night and which ones held true, including that Best Actor SAG stat where we saw Denzel Washington lose to Casey Affleck.
This podcast runs 1h 36m with music.
Intro: A24's 'Moonlight' trailer featuring music from Nicholas Britell's Oscar-nominated score
Outro: Thomas Newman's "New York City By Day" from the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack of Desperately Seeking Susan
Thu, 23 February 2017
Well, here we are. The last prediction podcast of the 2016-2017 Oscar season.
I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth and Evan for a deep dive into all 24 categories, starting off with the last batch of guilds that announced and using them as the jumping-off points for those Oscar categories.
That carries us into a conversation about Hidden Figures in this race, a film that's done very well with the guilds even though it has only three Oscar nominations, none of which it's a frontrunner for.
Then we hit a pair of highly competitive races, Best Actor between Denzel Washington (Fences) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and Best Supporting Actor between Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel (Lion).
Here is the itinerary/agenda of the podcast.
Last week of guilds:
MPSE – Sound
This podcast runs 3h 4m with music.
Intro music: ‘Going Green’
Thu, 16 February 2017
In our 50th Oscar podcast, I am joined by Gold Rush Gang member Bryan Bonafede.
With BAFTA behind us, Bryan and I dig deep into that Dev Patel win and how much it and Lion's recent surge will impact the Oscar race. We also cover most of the tech categories, their history and correlation with Oscar and where BAFTA might have convinced us to change our Oscar rankings. La La Land lost Costumes, Production Design, Film Editing, and Sound so we look closely at the films that won these, compare them with recent guild announcements from the Art Directors and ACE Eddies as well as upcoming ones like Costume Designers and both Sound guilds.
The battle for Best Actor is next and it's a battle between the overwhelming critics' winner Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) and two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington (Fences). Between personality, awards history and checkered pasts, this is a category ripe for surprise and we detail the reasons we've chosen who we've predicted to win.
We also look at the Visual Effects category where, while we both agree that The Jungle Book is the undisputed frontrunner, we each make a case for a possible spoiler in Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings.
With the Writers Guild of America this weekend we look at how, or if, the winners there will have much impact on possible Oscar results since category placement and eligibility between the two bodies don't match up very well. That said, Bryan and I both agree that at WGA the race for Original is between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea (where Moonlight is nominated) while the Adapted category (where Moonlight is Oscar-nominated) looks like a fight between Arrival and Hidden Figures. WGA predictions will be up tomorrow.
Don't fret, we end with talking about Best Actress and just how far ahead Emma Stone and if a chance for an Isabelle Huppert spoiler is in the cards.
This podcast runs 1h 36m.
Intro music: 'Going Green'
Tue, 31 January 2017
From the surprise wins for Hidden Figures and Denzel Washington (Fences) at the Screen Actors Guild to La La Land's march to an easy win at PGA, there's actually a lot to talk about.
We start with the PGA and its correlation to Oscar's Best Picture and where we now see Hidden Figures in that race. Then it's on to Supporting Actor where we wax poetic on Mahershala Ali's speech (lots of swooning here) and Viola Davis (Fences) as she steamrolls through the season and her competition. Best Actress is next, where Emma Stone (La La Land) stands alone as the frontrunner but who is next - Portman or Huppert? I detail why Portman might not be the #2 people think she is and why I think she lost. Next is Best Actor, which threw us a big left turn. Is Denzel Washington the new frontrunner or was he all along? Finally, we talk at length about the win for Hidden Figures for SAG's top award.
We close with predictions for next weekend's Directors Guild of America (DGA) awards and the impact on the Foreign Language Film race from the Trump administration's devastating anti-Muslim ban in regards to Iran's The Salesman and its director, Asghar Farhadi.
This podcast runs just over one hour.
Sat, 21 January 2017
Ok folks, get comfortable. This 48th Oscar podcast, our final Oscar predictions podcast before the nominations are announced on Tuesday the 24th is epic. 3h 25m epic. But don't be afraid; Chris, Bryan and I tackle all categories (except the shorts, sorry shorts) with laser precision and detail, offering up potential spoilers, justifications for crazy predictions as well as wondering if too much agreement within the group means we could be dead wrong.
We know La La Land will dominate on Tuesday but who will surprise? Is Nocturnal Animals the contender that BAFTA and the Golden Globes think it is? Is Isabelle Huppert safe? What about Best Picture - will we see all nominees come from the PGA top 10 or is something lurking in the dark? Will there be eight or nine nominees? What's the weakest link? The answer might surprise you.
After all, it's the Oscars, anything's possible.
Sun, 15 January 2017
In this 47th Oscar podcast, Gold Rush Gang member Júlia and I have a lot to discuss. The Golden Globes were last week and brought with them the deluge of La La Land's history-making wins, the shocks of Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Isabelle Huppert and the triumph of Moonlight in the 11th hour.
Then, BAFTA nominations showered Nocturnal Animals with love and held back on Moonlight.
All this and more on a supremely succinct podcast that runs less than an hour.