Sat, 12 December 2015
At SAG, Joy and The Martian are snubbed while Trumbo, Beasts of No Nation and Straight Outta Compton show up. What gives? Could it be the power of Helen Mirren and Bryan Cranston and their massive SAG histories? Things often make more sense in retrospect.
The Globes followed suit for Trumbo but then also brought us momentum for Carol, Room and Mad Max: Fury Road. Plus, the return of The Martian and Joy. We also talk about just how bad Warner Brothers is doing this year, both with their awards campaigns and box office.
We discuss all major categories and just how tough Supporting Actor is this year. The emergence of Michael Shannon in 99 Homes in an already packed race just adds another person to an already near-impossible top 5. Also discussed, the precarious position of Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander's category fraud campaigns.
We finish by digging heavy into Best Director, both the Golden Globe nominations and possible Directors Guild of America (DGA) candidates.
Sun, 29 November 2015
In our 31st podcast, I am joined by Gold Rush Gang members Kenneth Polishchuk and Evan Kost as Hollywood embarks on the beginning of the Oscar race: critics season.
With the National Board of Review and the New York Film Critics Circle revealing their winners on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, we break down who we think is going to win but, more importantly, how and why. We know the NBR has a penchant for rewarding Warner Brothers films (three in their top 10 in both 2013 and 2014) so we're pretty bullish on Black Mass (huge campaign), Mad Max: Fury Road (passion vote) and Creed (surprise late major player) to make it in.
Over at New York, their love of Todd Haynes should see Carol do very well but also room for Room and Spotlight to hit the ground running. Also, will NY consider Rooney Mara a Lead in Carol? The critics could very well buck The Weinstein Company's supporting placement of Mara (as the Golden Globes did) and push her in Best Actress.
We also discuss The Revenant, which I saw last night at an industry screening in San Francisco. It was met with rapturous response and I was moved and shocked by its brilliance and emotional impact. I also assert that there is virtually no way Leonardo DiCaprio isn't winning the Best Actor Oscar. Wrap it up, it's a done deal.
The other major screening was Joy in New York and Los Angeles last night with a Q&A with David O. Russell, Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Isabella Rossellini and Dascha Polanco. Although word is there are still going to be some sound edit tweaks to the film it's all but finished. Word was largely very positive, most especially towards Lawrence. It seems like it could end up being just a Lawrence vehicle in terms of awards but we're going to wait until actual reviews to show up on December 14th to be sure.
Throughout the podcast we talk about the ongoing conversation of this year's batch of 'women's films' and what they mean to the race. Can four female-led movies (Joy, Carol, Room, Brooklyn) all be Best Picture nominees? And how cool is that those four films hold the top four Best Actress contenders this year? Quite a far cry from last year, to be sure.
So, settle in, we break two hours with this podcast. Hit the gym or hit the bottle, either way it's a good listen.
Sun, 8 November 2015
In this, our 30th podcast, I welcome back a couple of Gold Rush Gang members (one current, one former) to talk about the most recent box office flops (Steve Jobs, Our Brand Is Crisis, Freeheld) and the three new Oscar hopefuls that debuted this weekend: Spotlight, Brooklyn and Trumbo.
We also dig into our Screen Actors Guild nomination predictions which finds Long Pham defending his handful of sole predictions (like Joel Edgerton in Black Mass) and Dennis Kelly coming in with some smart stats as he always does.
Wed, 14 October 2015
In our 29th podcast I welcome back Todd VanDerWerff, the Culture Editor of Vox.com to talk about the strange year of Oscar punditry and the 'wait and see' type of predictions that have been slowly settling in over the years and is especially evident this year. Is old fashioned predicting gone forever?
We dig deeper into how we think AMPAS looks at films year to year, how with Suffragette, Carol, Room and Joy that this might be an actual 'Year of the Women' in film and what that means for Oscar's Best Picture race.
We also talk about the Joy screening that happened last week. Two AwardsWatch members were there and reported back to me on their findings and the piece I wrote caused quite a stir in the Oscar prognostication community. Will it or The Revenant or The Hateful Eight break the December curse to be an Oscar Best Picture?
And hey, this podcast is under an hour! Perfect for the commute home or to work, on the treadmill or while hate-watching the newest season of American Horror Story: Hotel!
Mon, 28 September 2015
Oscar Podcast #28: After Venice, Telluride & TIFF - Who Fell, Who Rose and Who's in the Lead with special guest Gregory Ellwood
In this podcast I welcome HitFix co-founder and longtime Oscar pundit Gregory Ellwood (currently at the helm of awardscampaign.com) as we talk about the state of the race post fall festivals and right as NYFF kicks off.
The Danish Girl keeps popping up throughout the podcast (you'll have to listen to know where we think it landed) as well as Steve Jobs. Is it an actors showcase or can the film go all the way? We also focus on Spotlight and Room making big moves and wonder if Inside Out will crack Best Picture. Beasts of No Nation gets a lot of play as we examine if Netflix has it in them to make it happen.
Gregory and I spar a bit on what we think the Oscar chances for Joy and The Hateful Eight will be and Gregory pulls out a couple of potential 'surprise' movies that no one is talking about in the race that could hit big with Oscar.
All this and much more.
Mon, 24 August 2015
In this summertime podcast I'm joined by special guest Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood at IndieWire. Anne is a gal in the know and having her on this podcast is a treat. We're talking about the fall festivals, what may or may not be happening with Sony Pictures Classics' Miles Ahead, possible category fraud this season and we look at each of the major studios in the Oscar hunt:
What is Sony Pictures Classics' #1: I Saw the Light or Miles Ahead or Son of Saul?
All this and more in a tight 40 minutes!
Tue, 14 July 2015
In this final Emmy predictions podcast before the nominations are revealed on Thursday by So You Think You Can Dance's Cat Deeley and Orange is the New Black's Uzo Abuda (an Emmy winner in Guest last year), Awardswatch Emmy Experts Chris Pepper and Peter Cioth join me, Erik Anderson, to continue on from last week's podcast (with Vox.com's Todd VanDerWerff) to dig into the TV Movie/Limited Series, Variety and Reality categories.
Not satisfied there, we go back into the Drama and Comedy categories for some deeper analysis.
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and head over to our Emmy Predictions pages for full predictions on all major categories in Drama, Comedy, TV Movie/Limited Series, Variety and Reality.
Tue, 23 June 2015
In the first Emmy prediction podcast of the 2014/2015 season (I know, I know...), Awardswatch Emmy Experts Chris Pepper and Jonathan Boehle and myself, Erik Anderson, are honored to have AW alum and Vox.com Culture Editor Todd VanDerWerff join us as we deconstruct the Emmy submission ballots released last week and figure out if Orange is the New Black will suffer or benefit from its category switch from Comedy to Drama. We also take a look at the Guest categories in both Drama and Comedy and see how the 50% rule will affect those categories.
Later on we talk about the rise and fall of Netflix from last year to this year and how its Emmy season could end up and discuss the campaign games of HBO, Showtime and FX as well as if Mad Men will go out with a bang or a whimper. Todd makes his case for FX's The Americans to have a breakthrough year and I commit that Amazon's Transparent will be an Emmy nomination juggernaut.
Don't forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and head over to our Emmy Predictions pages for full predictions on everything from Variety Series, Reality Host and TV Movie/Limited Series acting categories.
Wed, 27 May 2015
In this Cannes post-mortem podcast I'm accompanied by Awardswatch Gold Rush Gang Member Jason Osiason and Awardswatch and International Cinephile Society member David Acacia, both of whom attended the 68th Cannes Film Festival last week and we dish about the movies they saw, the jury and the uninspired prize winners.
We also try and figure out if there is any Oscar hope from this year's slate of Cannes films and although it seems bleak there are a few bright spots.
In what's the highlight for me (duh) is Jason talking with effusive praise for Jake Gyllenhaal in 'Southpaw.' He saw the film as a part of a special screening group at the festival and believes, like Harvey Weinstein, that Gyllenhaal will reap an Oscar nomination for the role.
Be still my beating heart.
Mon, 4 May 2015
Oscar Podcast #25: The Danish Girl, Joy and Sicario with special guest Nathaniel Rogers from The Film Experience
In this podcast, Gold Rush Gang members Chris Pepper, Jason Osiason and myself welcome Nathaniel Rogers from The Film Experience to the show. We start off with Best Picture predictions talking about Carol, Joy, Bridge of Spies and Sicario from Denis Villenueve.
Then we head over to Best Actress to discuss if the lineup will be entirely made up of the last five winners in this category or if there's room for a newcomer like Alicia Vikander. With her category placement still a mystery she could land anywhere. Nathaniel also warns to never discount Meryl Streep even when it seems like you should. We discuss the women's and equal rights films that make up a good deal of contenders in this category and what impact they'll have on the race.
The Best Actor conversation spends a lot of time on Bradley Cooper in Adam Jones and Jake Gyllenhaal in Demolition (and to a lesser extent, Southpaw) with time spent on Tom Hiddleston's chances for his Hank Williams biopic, I See the Light.
Sit back and enjoy!
Sat, 11 April 2015
It's a new Oscar season (yes, in April) and we're back with the Awardswatch Oscar Podcast. This year saw some shakeup in the Gold Rush Gang and I welcome the return of Long Pham and congratulate newcomer Adam Norbury to the group.
In this first podcast we talk about (very) early 'frontrunners' like Carol, Joy and The Danish Girl as well as explore possible nominations for The Revenant's Leonardo DiCaprio, Demolition's Jake Gyllenhaal and Me and Earl and they Dying Girl's Olivia Cooke.
We also look at the recent announcement that AMPAS's Board of Governors might be considering a return to a 5-nominee slate for Best Picture and how we feel that's going to shake down as well as our personal opinions on it.
This is a short podcast (1hr 15m-ish), a record for the Awardswatch Oscar Podcast. But don't get used to it. It's early.
Mon, 16 February 2015
In Oscar podcast #23, Gold Rush Gang member Peter Cioth and myself, Erik Anderson, tear through all 24 Academy Awards categories to find the answer to the single question, "Who Will Win?"
While many categories seem locked and loaded (how could anything beat The Grand Budapest Hotel in Production Design or Julianne Moore in Best Actress?) not only do we have lower-tier categories up in the air, the BIG ones are too. Best Picture and Best Director are a juggling, jockeying back and forth of Boyhood or Birdman, Linklater or Iñárritu. And every combination between them. The problem is...they ALL make sense. What we do know is that no matter which of two wins we'll be looking at a new stat, a new precedent and something to talk about in future races besides Ordinary People or Apollo 13!
So sit back and listen as we discuss the seriousness of this Oscar dilemma and hopefully, enjoy.
Sun, 1 February 2015
Living in a post-SAG, post-PGA world our Oscar race has been turned upside down. In this podcast Gold Rush Gang member Peter Cioth, For Your Speculation's Rachel Schwartz and myself, Erik Anderson, embark on a prediction path of uncertainty and excitement as two industry guilds threw two major categories into a whirlwind of possibilities. Can Birdman overtake Boyhood in Best Picture? Does Eddie Redmayne's SAG win (and likely BAFTA win) make Michael Keaton a runner up? And how does American Sniper fit into all of this? Plus, we reveal that Rachel's dad is actually a secret AMPAS member. Ok, not really, but boy do his predictions and opinions sure sound like one. Sit back and enjoy Oscar Podcast #22 from AwardsWatch.
Wed, 7 January 2015
It's crunch time, just a week away from Oscar nominations and we have a whole slew of guilds to talk about (Writers Guild, Art Directors Guild, Producers Guild!) plus the curious cases of the Selma snubs and the rise of American Sniper, the resurgence of Foxcatcher and if Whiplash and Nightcrawler are really running as neck and neck as they seem and if the former last-minute category change will affect its Oscar chances.
But we're not done there; we have BAFTA nomination predictions and our Golden Globe winner predictions featuring some disturbing possibilities in the form of someone who rhymes with Yennifer Yaniston.